AGENDA

 

 

 AGENDA  (click for PDF version) 

MAP with locations of hotels and NCAR building sites

 DRAFT Agenda 

The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research 


Day 1: Wednesday, November 2                                                                                       Location:   FOOTHILLS LAB2

Transport Schedule

7:45                       Buses will pick up participants from hotels for transport to NCAR  Foothills Laboratory, Building 2

8:00                        Registration and coffee

8:30-8:40              Welcome

                                Peter Backlund (NCAR) 

8:40-9:00              Introduction and meeting goals

                                Brian O’Neill (NCAR)

                                The Scenario Matrix Architecture                                                                     Chair: Jae Edmonds

Overview of the scenario architecture as described in the Framework Paper.  What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?  Why are they useful? What are their key elements? How do they differ from scenarios?

 

9:00-9:30              Overview of the background document: A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios

                                Elmar Kriegler (PIK)

9:30-10:00           Discussion

10:00-10:30         Coffee break

                                Narratives for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)                                Chair: Tim Carter

Proposals regarding SSP narratives or approaches to narratives.  What aspects of these narratives determine the level of challenges to adaptation and mitigation?  Are there commonalities or key differences across proposals?

 

Session Introduction:   Narratives for Shared Economic Pathways
Tim Carter (SYKE)

10:30-10:50         Overview of narratives in integrated assessment model SSP experiments

Keywan Riahi (IIASA)

 

10:50-11:10         Key aspects of narratives from an impacts perspective

Tom Wilbanks (ORNL)

 

11:10-11:30         Internally consistent combinations of narrative elements

Vanessa Schweizer (NCAR)

 

11:30-11:50         A scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future mitigative and adaptive capacity

Julie Rozenberg (CIRED)

 

11:50-12:30         Discussion

12:30-1:30           Lunch

                                Integrated Assessment Model SSP experiments                              Chair: Stephane Hallegatte

Report on IAM experiments, illustrating how SSPs have been interpreted in models, and highlighting insights and open questions for SSP narratives, and for scenarios based on them.

1:30-1:50              Report from the AIM group

Shinichiro Fujimori (NIES)

 

1:50-2:10              Report from the GCAM group

Jae Edmonds (PNNL)

 

2:10-2:30              Report from the IMAGE group

Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)

 

2:30-2:50              Report from the MESSAGE group

Keywan Riahi (IIASA)

 

2:50-3:10              Report from the REMIND-MAgPIE group

Elmar Kriegler (PIK)

 

3:10-3:45              Discussion

3:45-4:15              Coffee break

4:15-6:15              Breakout groups

Groups will consider the set of SSPs as a whole and work toward zero-order narratives.  Begin to consider elements that could be part of extended SSPs vs basic SSPs.

6:15                      Buses will transport participants from the meeting site directly to the reception at the
                           Boulder Marriott. 


6:30-8:30              Reception at the Marriott

8:00                        Buses will return participants to the Residence Inn and the Marriott Courtyard Hotel. The reception location is a short walk from the Best Western Golden Buff.

 
Day 2: Thursday, November 3                                                                                                          Location:   MESA LAB

 

7:45                        Buses will pick up participants from hotels for transport to NCAR Mesa Laboratory

 

8:30-9:30              Breakout Group Reports to Plenary                                                                     Chair: Brian O'Neill

Reports from each breakout group: bullet points of key aspects of zero order narratives, areas of agreement/disagreement, aspects that might be useful for extended (vs. basic) SSPs

9:30-10:30           Priority elements of SSPs                                                                                                Chair: Kris Ebi

Perspectives from various scenario users and developers on elements considered most important to include in SSPs in order to characterize challenges to adaptation/mitigation.  Views should also include thoughts on what should be in basic vs extended distinctions.

 9:30-9:50              Expert elicitation of key determinants of mitigation/adaptation challenges

Vanessa Schweizer (NCAR)

 

9:50-10:10           Representative agricultural pathways 

John Antle (Oregon State University)

 

10:10-10:30         Discussion

10:30-11:00         Coffee break

11:00-11:20         Advancing the development of socioeconomic scenarios through the lens of vulnerability
                           and adaptive capacity

Joern Birkmann (UNU)

 

11:20-11:40          Drivers of water stress in the World Water Scenarios 

Gilberto Gallopin (World Water Scenarios Project)

 

11:40-12:00         Scenarios as vulnerabilities of proposed policies

Robert Lempert (RAND)

 

12:00-12:30         Discussion

12:30-1:30           Lunch

                                Quantitative elements of SSPs                                                                         Chair: Keywan Riahi

Proposals for quantitative elements of SSPs such as population, GDP, urbanization, and other socioeconomic characteristics that would be important to characterizing challenges to adaptation and mitigation.

 

1:30-1:50              Urbanization, education and the Human Development Index as components of SSPs

Brian O'Neill (NCAR)

 

1:50-2:10              International Futures (IFs) as a source of richer socioeconomic development pathways for adaptation and mitigation analyses

Dale Rothman (Univ. Denver)

 

2:10-2:30              New urbanization projections for use in socioeconomic scenario development

Leiwen Jiang (NCAR)

 

2:30-2:50              Consistent global population and education scenarios and a link to GDP

Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA)

 

2:50-3:15              Discussion

3:15-3:45              Coffee break

3:45-4:00              Instructions for breakout groups                                                                        Chair:  Brian O'Neill 

 

Summary of progress on SSPs and unresolved issues

Tim Carter

4:00-5:30              Breakout groups

Revisit SSP narratives and elements of basic vs extended SSPs; discuss possible quantitative elements of SSPs including IA and IAV model inputs.

 

5:30-6:30              Breakout Group Reports to Plenary

6:30-8:30              Reception at Mesa Lab

8:30                        Buses will return participants to the hotels after reception at the NCAR Mesa Laboratory


Day 3: Friday, November 4                                                                                                                     Location:   MESA LAB

 

7:45                        Buses will pick up participants from hotels for transport to NCAR Mesa Laboratory

 

8:30-8:40              Introduction to Day 3

 

                                Climate and ecosystem topics                                                                                   Chair: Linda Mearns 

 

8:40-9:00              Update on RCP-based climate simulations as part of CMIP5

Jerry Meehl (NCAR)

 

9:00-9:20              An overview of pattern scaling, its strengths and limitations, and a first look at CMIP5 patterns

Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR)

 

9:20-9:40              Emissions of short lived species in the RCPs, and needs for the SSPs

Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR)

 

9:40-10:00           Landuse in SSPs

Peter Lawrence (NCAR)

 

10:00-10:30         Discussion

10:30-11               Coffee break

11:00-1:00           Plenary: Conclusions and process discussion

                            Thoughts on next steps

                                 IAV Perspective
                                  Tim Carter (SYKE)

                                  IAM Perspective                           
                                    Joe Edmonds (PNNL)

 

1:00                        Meeting adjourned

1:30                        Buses will return participants to the hotels