International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS)
The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes could pose to human and natural systems; how these could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Working together, climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines are developing policy-relevant scenarios, exploring the implications of different possible futures for the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with increasing climate change. More...
The ICONICS Committee was proposed in November 2011 in Boulder, Colorado, at the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research. Shortly thereafter, members of the IAM and IAV communities self-organized a Joint IAV-IAM Committee on Development and Use of Socioeconomic Scenarios to:
a) Complete fast-track Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) including narratives and quantification from models and other sources in time for use in AR5; and
b) Facilitate establishment of a research program and limited coordinating infrastructure for a long term IAV-IAM agenda for development and application of integrated scenarios beyond the AR5.
Ebi, Kristie (co-chair) | ClimAdapt, LLC | Los Altos, California, USA
Kram, Tom (co-chair) | Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency | Utrecht, Netherlands
Carter, Tim (observer) | Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) | Helsinki, Finland
Edmonds, Jae | Joint Global Change Research Institute | College Park, Maryland, USA
Hallegatte, Stephane | World Bank | Washington, DC USA
Kok, Kasper | Wageningen University | Wageningen, the Netherlands
Kriegler, Elmar | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research | Potsdam, Germany
Levy, Marc | Center for Intern'l Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) | New York, New York, USA
Masui, Toshihiko | National Institute for Environmental Studies | Tsukuba, Japan
Mearns, Linda | National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) | Boulder, Colorado, USA
Moss, Richard | Joint Global Change Research Institute | College Park, Maryland, USA
O'Neill, Brian | National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) | Boulder, Colorado, USA
Preston, Ben | Oak Ridge National Laboratory | Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Riahi, Keywan | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) | Laxenburg, Austria
van Ruijven, Bas | National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) | Boulder, Colorado, USA
van Vuuren, Detlef | Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency | Utrecht, Netherlands
The work of the joint committee is initially focusing on several high priority tasks. Informal working groups are coordinating inputs from interested individuals and developing drafts for circulation and comment. The list of working groups below includes contact information for the WG chairs. See individual working group pages for further information. If you are interested in working on one of these topics, please contact the WG co-chair.
Work with broadened membership to explore adding information on governance & institutions, income distribution (add to existing), and “shocks” to global SSPs. Revise and finalize narratives for SSPs (build on Boulder drafts and incorporating Hague workshop feedback). Develop plan for ensuring SSPs communicate effectively with end users and the public.
IAV-IAM handshake document and research community interactions
Chair: Jae Edmonds
Fast-track: Produce an IAV-IAM “Handshake Document”. Plan handoffs and feedbacks between IAMs and MIPs. Complete series of special issues. Coordinate outreach and review process.
Produce IAM scenarios (input assumptions and model outputs) for IAM representative scenarios based on the SSPs. Identify “challenges” metrics for fast-track process; Develop a small number of shared policy scenarios drawing on EMF and other intercomparisons for mitigation policy ideas; Archive data sets in the SSP scenario data base hosted by IIASA. Document scenarios in a special issue of a scientific journal.
Identify and quantify indicators useful to IAV researchers and other users not produced by IAMs. Scope and incorporate information/data for near-term (pre 2050) decades. Develop ideas for incorporating adaptation policy into SPAs and coordinate with IAM quantification group; Explore methods for calibrating new and existing scenarios in the “challenge” matrix.
Develop and implement a plan for producing nested (a.k.a. regional) scenarios. Consider how much consistency is needed (for specific questions/uses). Identify ongoing activities, list resources (e.g., technical guidance), link to ESSP and other programs to encourage use of SSPs, compile information on SSP-related scenarios.
Roadmap for future IAV–IAM collaboration on scenarios
Co-chairs: Stephane Hallegatte
Prepare a IAM-IAV roadmap for further development and application of SSPs and scenarios based on them, including iterative development, application, and revision reaching beyond the IPCC AR5 timeline. Scope and propose research program in ESSP or Future Earth.